Modern Caveman: The OFFICIAL Ray Gordon Blog

Free PAP sheets for the final weekend at Belmont

Next Friday, Saturday and Sunday, the PAP sheets for Belmont will be available free of charge through the Price And Probability website.  Check that link for more information. 

We will also be offering a special promotion for Saratoga in conjunction with the free sheets for the weekend.

Street Sense Wins The Kentucky Derby? History Says No.

Street Sense, the smashing winner of the 2006 Breeders' Cup Juvenile, and early favorite for the 2007 Kentucky Derby, is up against it in his quest for those Roses, because no winner of the Breeders' Cup Juvenile has ever gone on to win the Derby, although a few, like Easy Goer, have come close, and Arazi might well have done it had he not had surgery to his knees six weeks prior to the Kentucky Derby.

I was more impressed with the Stars of the Future cards at Churchill than the BC Juvenile, and wouldn't be surprised if some of those late-blooming two year-olds become Bernardini-like monsters in the spring.  While the Derby winner almost always races at two, many of them were not dominant or even noteworthy until the race approached, and some were not impressive until literally the moment they crossed the wire in front.

If historical trends are any indicator, Street Sense can be ignored as a Derby prospect, while some lightly-raced unkonwns from top Triple Crown barns can be found at enormous futures odds.  This year should be little different.

New Book On The Way (And Why Posts Are Light)

I haven't been making very long or many posts (one short one a day) lately due to being loaded up with work, specifically on a new horse racing book that should be done by the end of the month.  When it's ready, I'll post more information.  It's about how to correctly set your own morning line for any type of race.

Where oh WHERE is The Green Monkey?

The Green Monkey, who was purchsed for $16 million as a two year-old, has STILL not made it to the track! 

He is back in Kentucky, and will not race this year.  Horses who do not race at two have not won the Kentucky Derby, at least not in modern times.

This could be one of the biggest busts in the history of sport.  Keep in mind that near-Triple Crown winner Afleet Alex cost all of $75,000 as a yearling, and that many Derby winners have been purchased for less.  Seattle Slew was a $17,500 yearling, if I recall correctly.

Ray

Fritz Crushes Kramnik

Deep Fritz has defeated Kramnik in their match, four games to two.

It is now clear that we are inferior to computers in chess, and this brings a new era where chess is more like a video game now, where the software corrects our mistakes by defeating us, and the game can be "solved" beyond what we were previously capable of.

In the "dinosaur" days of chess, grandmasters had to guess if their moves were sound.  If something looked good or logical, it was played, and even after many games, we couldn't be certain if the moves were the best.  Now, however, computers can solve highly complex positions and shed light on many more.  What's most interesting is that the computers are able to win by playing openings that give it mere equality, at which point their tactical strength kicks in as they suffocate their helpless GM opponents in the middlegame.  Computers have also verified that many "fringe" openings (such as the Latvian or the Center Counter) are much richer in possibilities than we humans ever dreamed possible.

Chess is in its golden age right now: computers are strong enough to help the average person understand the game and watch high-level play, but not so strong that we can't outplay them from time to time, or that they can't get stumped by complex positions.  At some point, the game will be reduced to a complex algorithm (we're already up to six-piece tablebases), and the winner will be the one who memorizes existing theory.  There will be new theory developed along the way, but the focus in chess has definitely shifted from the creativity required to develop new theory instead to the ability to master what is already known.